中信证券目标价1150元

在贵州茅台集团直销方案落地后，中信证券在8月13日的发布的研报显示：“预计公司2019-2020年营收增速分别为15.90%、15.09%，归属于母公司的净利润增速分别为20.6%、17.4%，对应的每股盈余分别为33.80元、39.69元，维持买入评级，目标价 1150元。”

研报提到，茅台未来将重新统筹因违规被收回的茅台酒经营权，将其投放到自营、团购等符合本公司营销战略布局的渠道和方式，考虑到前期茅台收回取消经销商配额及批条酒合计约6000吨，则预计未来公司自营、商超、电商及团购渠道投放量约4300吨左右。

中信证券认为，集团营销公司方案落地，解决了市场对公司治理透明度的担忧、同时可能提高市场的中长期提价预期，公司估值的压制因素均得到缓解，估值水平有望提升。参考海外烈酒龙头，预计茅台估值有望提升至30倍以上水平。公司自营比例提升将有利于进一步提高茅台盈利水平。茅台年初以来供需不平衡导致批价快速上涨，渠道利润高达140%左右，未来存在再次提价的可能

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